Who wins in the US-Vietnam trade deal?

Summary

It is always marginal between playing tricks and playing fires. 09 July is yet to come, still hard to tell who wins in the US-Vietnam trade deal, and who wins the economic war against the whole world initiated by USA.

On July 2, 2025, the United States and Vietnam finalized a new trade agreement involving tariffs. Under the deal, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face a 20% tariff, while U.S. goods entering Vietnam will be exempt from tariffs.

From a U.S. perspective, this appears to be a favorable outcome, particularly for former President Donald Trump, who has long emphasized trade deals that benefit American interests. Using 2024 trade figures as a reference:

• U.S. exports to Vietnam totaled $13.1 billion. Assuming Vietnam previously imposed an average tariff of 10%, the removal of this tariff could save U.S. exporters approximately $1.31 billion annually.
• U.S. imports from Vietnam amounted to $136.6 billion. A 20% tariff on these goods could generate $27.32 billion in revenue for the U.S. government.

Combined, these changes represent a potential economic shift of $28.63 billion, which supporters of the deal may view as a significant win for the U.S.

However, the broader implications are more nuanced.

While the tariff exemption may seem beneficial for U.S. exporters, Vietnam is not a major destination for U.S. goods globally. The impact on American businesses may be limited, especially considering existing non-tariff barriers that restrict market access.

Vietnam’s strategy, on the other hand, could be seen as a calculated move. By accepting higher tariffs on its exports, Vietnam may be positioning itself as a more attractive manufacturing hub for companies seeking alternatives to China. With Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 55% in the U.S., Vietnam’s 20% rate could incentivize U.S. importers to shift sourcing to Vietnamese suppliers.

This could lead to increased foreign investment in Vietnam, particularly from Chinese firms looking to bypass U.S. tariffs by relocating production. The potential outcomes for Vietnam include:

• Growth in manufacturing and exports
• Job creation
• Real estate and infrastructure development
• Overall economic expansion

In this context, Vietnam may emerge as a strategic winner in the ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions.

As the agreement takes effect on July 9, the long-term consequences remain to be seen. Whether this deal marks a decisive victory for either side—or simply a tactical maneuver in a complex global trade landscape—will depend on how businesses and governments respond in the months ahead.